Market Milestones – Pursuing Poetry

This week, Jerremy Newsome and I discussed the absolutely relentless bullishness we’ve seen over the last month—and where we think the market is headed next. As I’ve said several times now, the 5/12 gap changed the game. That gap over resistance, over the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, and over the bullish trendline on QQQ was a big deal. As long as that gap holds, along with the key support at $575, the market should keep grinding higher.

Back in April when the market was falling hard, Jerremy compared the setup to Brexit—and we were both saying it looked like a very buyable event. That Brexit analog has continued to play out nicely. But now, we may be looking at an even more bullish setup, one more similar to the Covid recovery. If either of these scenarios is playing out, we should push higher for at least another 1–2 weeks. The Covid analog points to a move toward $630 before a meaningful pullback. The Brexit analog suggests a push to around $605.

Let’s break each one down to get a better idea of where we could be headed. History, and stock charts tend to rhyme, so let's find some poetry together.

COVID 2020 vs. Liberation Day 2025

Similarities:

• The Covid crash lasted 23 trading days. The Liberation Day crash lasted 33 trading days. Sharp, fast drawdowns in both cases.

• Both initial bounces off the lows were fierce: 2020 rallied 18% in 4 days, while 2025 saw a 14% move in just 3 days—both major short squeezes to form the bottom.

• Both of those initial rallies were quickly retested: 2020 gave back 38.2% of the initial rally, while 2025 pulled back 61.8%.

• The very early retests were the only decent pullbacks before both markets launched higher again with very few dips.

• Last Friday’s drop into the 100-day and 200-day SMAs closely mirrors the June 15, 2020 drop. Both dips occurred just under the 88% retracement of the crash and both found support at the 200-day SMA before gapping higher the next day.

• Covid’s retest after the 88% retracement was a little over 8%; the 2025 retest was about 3.5%. Still, structurally they look very similar.

Where it could go next:

If these similarities continue, we could either push directly higher from here or get one more retest of the $576 level—potentially forming a double bottom, just like we did in 2020—before pushing to new all-time highs in June.

One key difference between the two moves is the size and timing. The 2020 drawdown was 36%; in 2025, it was 21%. The 2020 recovery to the 88% retracement level took 53 days. This year, it's only taken 29 days. However, the ratios of these moves are actually somewhat consistent:

• Drawdown: 21 days vs. 36 days = 0.58

• Days to recover: 29 days vs. 53 days = 0.54

• Retest depth: 3.5% vs. 8% = 0.43

If we take these rough ratios and do some dubious speculating, we could be on track for a move to around $630 before a larger pullback. That would be about 3% above the all-time high—half the 6% post-recovery push seen during the Covid rally.

 SPY 2020 vs 2025

Brexit 2015 vs. Liberation Day 2025

Similarities:

• The 2015 Brexit drop took 25 trading days. The 2025 Liberation Day drop took 33. However, most of the Brexit damage happened in 5 days, while most of the 2025 drop happened in 3.

• In both cases, we saw a face-ripping short squeeze off the bottom. In 2015 and 2025, the market retraced 50% of the crash in just 3 and 4 days, respectively.

• 2015 experienced a deeper retest off the initial move off of the bottom, retracing 76%, versus the 61.8% retrace in 2025.

• After those retests, both markets moved mostly vertically, with very similar gap-ups over and pushes through the long-term moving averages.

• In 2015, once the market gapped up over the 200-day SMA and held that level, it continued grinding higher above the 88% retracement. However, it fell just short of new all-time highs—topping out about 1% below the previous high at the 93% retracement level.

• Once the 2015 market broke back below the 200-day SMA, the rally ended. Lower highs followed, and eventually a new low was made.

What it suggests now:

If this scenario plays out again, we could be very close to a top right now, with a target between $603–$605 before a larger pullback.

It’s not my base case that SPY returns to new lows from here. We’ve built a ton of solid support underneath us. But anything’s possible. If we start gapping down hard and closing below key levels—just like we did in December 2015—that’s when it’s time to get cautious.

For now, I believe the next larger retest of the April–May price action will be a buying opportunity. The only real question now is how high we go before that pullback begins. If SPY breaks and closes below $575, I’ll consider that a signal for a correction—and I’ll be looking to buy that dip. We’ll keep everyone posted on our favorite setups and buy zones if that happens.

SPY 2015 vs 2025