Market Milestones: Easy Money

The relentless strength of this bull market continues as SPY and QQQ once again push into new all-time highs, with SPY climbing into the upper bounds of its rising wedge. The leaders are extended—but they refuse to roll over or break any meaningful support. Until that changes, there’s no reason to expect anything but more churn and burn to the upside. For what it's worth, the past two years have both seen meaningful corrections in July, so perhaps we pull off three in a row at the last second. If and when key supports do start to break, we could finally see a real pullback into some high-conviction buy zones—offering excellent opportunities to grab strong names and ride them into late 2025 and beyond.

Sometimes, the best thing you can do for your portfolio is practice patience, wait, and keep scanning. July has already brought us a wave of absolute banger setups in names like OKLO, ALAB, U, GOOGL, EOSE, NNE, ACHR, RCAT, BULL, and most recently BE. The theme for July has been finding setups that look different than the market—names that weren’t extended but still had clean trends and high-potential patterns. That approach allowed us to hop into a lot of trades that paid off nicely.

This kind of market loves to give traders a nasty case of FOMO. It keeps ripping higher day after day, and every time you take profits, the stock rips another 10% the next morning. But here’s the truth: if you’re a trader, you’re always going to be selling too early. That’s the job. You’ll never nail the top. The alternative is never selling—or worse, holding so long that your winner round-trips on you. Take your gains and move on.

SPY

Bitcoin also had a great month, which made my July even better. It’s up about 20% from its June low, and I still believe it can make a solid swing higher—possibly to the $125,000–$135,000 zone. That said, I collared half of my IBIT position recently, just in case we pull back before making that next leg higher. I feel like a broken record, but when everyone and their brother is extending targets and throwing out moonshot numbers just to generate clicks and FOMO, I start to get a little cautious.

Yes, I do think BTC could eventually hit the high $100Ks or even $200K+ in this cycle. But my primary target has been—and remains—between $123,456 and $140,000. That’s the level I’ve planned around for over a year now, and I’ll continue to treat it as my base case.

I remember the last cycle when everyone was calling for $100,000 BTC and $10,000 ETH. Three years later after a 77% drawdown, BTC finally hit that number… but ETH? Nowhere near it. And what do you know—those $10,000 ETH calls are showing up again in my feed. Froth is back, no question. This whole market grind higher could last longer than I expect—it already has—but this is exactly why having a plan matters.

If you're not a long-term investor in these assets, then now is the time to get very intentional. You need to define your sell zones, buy zones, and your if/then statements for every position you hold. The easy money has already been made in this cycle. From here on out, it’s all harder money—with more risk and less reward. Sure, BTC could double from here—but the probability is far lower than when it was sitting at $40K, $50K, or even $80K just a few months ago. Long-term, I still believe we’ll eventually see seven-figure BTC—but if anyone’s calling for that this cycle, they’re probably just looking for exit liquidity.

BTCUSD

I know it feels like a retest in our favorite AI names will never come. And maybe it doesn’t—for some of the mega-cap AI darlings. But there will be better risk/reward entries in the future. There will be a buyable dip. There always is.

When the market is going up, it feels like it’ll never stop going up. When it’s going down, it feels like it’ll never stop going down. Well, as long as we’re printing trillions and debasing the currency, the market likely won’t stop going up over the long term—it just won’t be a straight line.

Stay patient out there, friends.