Here we are again—another day when the relentless grind higher continues on the SPY despite all odds. PPI came in hot on Thursday, but no one cares. The market still assumes the Fed cuts in September, and pullbacks are simply not allowed around here. A few weeks ago we compared this persistent move higher with the 2024 bull market that never seemed to stop, and the similarities remain. That move went up 50% over the course of 480 days. Our current move has already gained 33% in just 129 days. If we get our first real correction at the same point we did during that market, the highs should come near the end of this month.

By then, SPY could easily be at $650 or $660. Even a modest 5-6% pullback from that level would likely not break the $620 key support before the uptrend resumes, pushing SPY into the $700 zone by the end of 2025. As long as key support holds, I think the correlation between now and the 2024 bull run shouldn’t be ignored. For what it’s worth, NVDA reports earnings on 8/27, and this bar pattern shows a high on 8/28 for the SPY. I think NVDA will crush earnings, but the question is whether they’ll crush them enough to spark another breakaway gap and send the largest stock in the world to a $5 trillion market cap. If that happens, all bets are off—we could be in for a melt-up worthy of the dot-com bubble, followed, of course, by something quite epic in the opposite direction.

SPY

Speaking of calamitous drops—this wouldn’t be a Market Milestones if I didn’t drone on about BTC for a bit, would it? I’ve been extra active in my Bitcoin analysis lately because we’re reaching a point where risk is elevated and a top is possible right now—something I haven’t said at any other point in this cycle. I’ve written multiple newsletters lately about the bullish case for $200K Bitcoin as well as the more bearish case for a top in the $120K–$140K range. I certainly hope Bitcoin goes much higher from here, but what I want doesn’t matter to the hardest asset on the planet.

On Thursday, BTC gave us a bull trap. It’s done so four other times in this cycle and twice—very notably—in the last cycle. Both the April and November 2021 tops had this exact pattern: an all-time-high trap followed by major drawdowns. Each time we’ve seen this bull trap, the market has dropped, broken its prior higher low, and seen the RSI dip to oversold (27 on the daily chart). I’ve used that oversold RSI as a remarkably accurate buy signal this cycle—especially when combined with bullish divergence.

BTCUSD

Here’s a look at the drawdowns after these bitcoin bull traps:

April 2021 – 55%
November 2021 – 77%
February 2023 – 22%
July 2023 – 22%
July 2024 – 30%
January 2025 – 32%

Perhaps this time is different and the bull trap leads only to only a modest pullback, with BTC holding the prior higher low at $112K. Maybe the pullback is even done already and we head higher from here. We’ll know soon.

However, history would warn that Bitcoin is setting up for more of a drop than most are anticipating. Bitcoin is once again running into resistance at the midpoint of the massive parallel channel that has held bitcoin since 2017 bull run. A 22% drop (seen twice this cycle) would take us into the lower trendline of the gray parallel channel which has held this entire bull run. If we start breaking below the gray channel and the trendline that’s supported this bull trend since the beginning, I’d consider this bull market in jeopardy. A break below the $88K key support? That’s life support territory. I’ll still follow my long-term rule of buying BTC when the daily RSI hits 27—and again on bullish divergence—but we’d then be at risk of retesting the broader parallel channel trendline (green line), which currently sits near $50K.

BTCUSD

Don’t get too discouraged, my fellow Bitcoin bulls. There’s still hope. We still have a few wave counts, several indicators, and plenty of on-chain metrics suggesting the top isn’t here quite yet. It’s entirely possible we’re just getting September weakness a bit early. Historically, the year after the halving has always—yes, always—seen a September pullback right before the final leg higher. This would also line up with possible September weakness we could see in the SPY if the yellow bars are accurate. If we do pull back into the $110K–$95K range, it could be the last shakeout before Bitcoin’s final push higher. One more shot at bull market gains before winter comes.