Real Life Trading Blog
Yates CraigOn Thursday, BTC gave us a bull trap. It’s done so four other times in this cycle and twice—very notably—in the last cycle. Both the April and November 2021 tops had this exact pattern: an all-time-high trap followed by major drawdowns. Each time we’ve seen this bull trap, the market has dropped, broken its prior higher low, and seen the RSI dip to oversold (27 on the daily chart)
Yates CraigThe dip—which has taken longer to show up than I’d like—may finally be around the corner. It’s been about as elusive since April as Bigfoot, but the signs are adding up right now.
Yates CraigWhen the market is going up, it feels like it’ll never stop going up. When it’s going down, it feels like it’ll never stop going down. Well, as long as we’re printing trillions and debasing the currency, the market likely won’t stop going up over the long term—it just won’t be a straight line.
Yates CraigI’m not asking for much here. Just a humble 5–10% drop in the overall market to reset this incredible run and give us the legs to push even higher into 2026. Based on seasonality, the current run-up, and the pullbacks we saw in both July 2023 and July 2024, I still think a dip could arrive later this month or in early August.
Yates CraigSatoshi Nakamoto became the 12th richest person on Earth on Thursday, and I hope many of you became much wealthier as fellow Bitcoin holders. I’ve been covering BTC publicly for years, and every new all-time high is always fun to celebrate.
Yates CraigAfter watching more price action come in this week, 2018 is shaping up to be the most likely analog we’re tracking. That said, it feels like SPY is headed to $700 before August. And mathematically, it’s possible—just 18 more days in a row like Thursday’s 0.75% gain to make it happen!
Real Life Trading Blog
Yates CraigOn Thursday, BTC gave us a bull trap. It’s done so four other times in this cycle and twice—very notably—in the last cycle. Both the April and November 2021 tops had this exact pattern: an all-time-high trap followed by major drawdowns. Each time we’ve seen this bull trap, the market has dropped, broken its prior higher low, and seen the RSI dip to oversold (27 on the daily chart)
Yates CraigThe dip—which has taken longer to show up than I’d like—may finally be around the corner. It’s been about as elusive since April as Bigfoot, but the signs are adding up right now.
Yates CraigWhen the market is going up, it feels like it’ll never stop going up. When it’s going down, it feels like it’ll never stop going down. Well, as long as we’re printing trillions and debasing the currency, the market likely won’t stop going up over the long term—it just won’t be a straight line.
Yates CraigI’m not asking for much here. Just a humble 5–10% drop in the overall market to reset this incredible run and give us the legs to push even higher into 2026. Based on seasonality, the current run-up, and the pullbacks we saw in both July 2023 and July 2024, I still think a dip could arrive later this month or in early August.
Yates CraigSatoshi Nakamoto became the 12th richest person on Earth on Thursday, and I hope many of you became much wealthier as fellow Bitcoin holders. I’ve been covering BTC publicly for years, and every new all-time high is always fun to celebrate.
Yates CraigAfter watching more price action come in this week, 2018 is shaping up to be the most likely analog we’re tracking. That said, it feels like SPY is headed to $700 before August. And mathematically, it’s possible—just 18 more days in a row like Thursday’s 0.75% gain to make it happen!
* All investments carry a certain level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Please consider your objectives and risk tolerance before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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