Real Life Trading Blog

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from Complacency

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from Complacency

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from ComplacencyYates Craig
Published on: 03/10/2025

This month isn’t about punishment or proving anything to anyone else—it’s about growth. It’s about refusing to drift through life on autopilot, about reclaiming my attention, my body, and my soul from the comfort that lulls me into complacency. I want to feel alive, challenged, and fully present in every moment I’m given.

Market Milestones
Market Milestones: Bitcoin Breakdown

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Breakdown

Market Milestones: Bitcoin BreakdownYates Craig
Published on: 26/09/2025

We saw Bitcoin and the broader crypto market break down on Thursday, sparking panic and renewed fears that the top is in. That’s certainly possible, and I’ve been warning about the bull trap since August 14th. In past cycles, every bull trap led to a significant drawdown—22% at the shallow end, 77% at the steepest. A 22% pullback would take BTC to around $97,000, which also lines up with the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart. That’s the moving average I use to separate bull and bear cycles, and it’s been reliable this run.

Market Milestones
Market Milestones: Bitcoin Bull Market Support

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Bull Market Support

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Bull Market SupportYates Craig
Published on: 04/09/2025

September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin and this one is setting up no differently. The current double top is playing out with a clean neckline retest on September 3rd. The double top measured move targets the $95k–$100k range. This is where multiple supports converge: the 50-week EMA, the 100-SMA on the 3D chart, the YTD anchored VWAP, and the cycle trendline that has held this entire bull market.

Market Milestones
Market Milestones: Waiting on Jerome

Market Milestones: Waiting on Jerome

Market Milestones: Waiting on JeromeYates Craig
Published on: 22/08/2025

If we break above Wednesday’s hammer on SPY, we likely push toward $650. If we break below, $620 comes into play. NVDA earnings next Wednesday after the close will complicate things further—how the stock trades will almost certainly sway the market’s next big move. Time will tell, but September could finally deliver the pullback everyone has been waiting for.

Market Milestones
Market Milestones: Bull Trap

Market Milestones: Bull Trap

Market Milestones: Bull TrapYates Craig
Published on: 15/08/2025

On Thursday, BTC gave us a bull trap. It’s done so four other times in this cycle and twice—very notably—in the last cycle. Both the April and November 2021 tops had this exact pattern: an all-time-high trap followed by major drawdowns. Each time we’ve seen this bull trap, the market has dropped, broken its prior higher low, and seen the RSI dip to oversold (27 on the daily chart)

Market Milestones
Maket Milestones: Reversal?

Maket Milestones: Reversal?

Maket Milestones: Reversal?Yates Craig
Published on: 01/08/2025

The dip—which has taken longer to show up than I’d like—may finally be around the corner. It’s been about as elusive since April as Bigfoot, but the signs are adding up right now.

Market Milestones

Real Life Trading Blog

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from Complacency

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from Complacency

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from ComplacencyYates Craig
Published on: 03/10/2025

This month isn’t about punishment or proving anything to anyone else—it’s about growth. It’s about refusing to drift through life on autopilot, about reclaiming my attention, my body, and my soul from the comfort that lulls me into complacency. I want to feel alive, challenged, and fully present in every moment I’m given.

Market Milestones
Market Milestones: Bitcoin Breakdown

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Breakdown

Market Milestones: Bitcoin BreakdownYates Craig
Published on: 26/09/2025

We saw Bitcoin and the broader crypto market break down on Thursday, sparking panic and renewed fears that the top is in. That’s certainly possible, and I’ve been warning about the bull trap since August 14th. In past cycles, every bull trap led to a significant drawdown—22% at the shallow end, 77% at the steepest. A 22% pullback would take BTC to around $97,000, which also lines up with the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart. That’s the moving average I use to separate bull and bear cycles, and it’s been reliable this run.

Market Milestones
Market Milestones: Bitcoin Bull Market Support

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Bull Market Support

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Bull Market SupportYates Craig
Published on: 04/09/2025

September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin and this one is setting up no differently. The current double top is playing out with a clean neckline retest on September 3rd. The double top measured move targets the $95k–$100k range. This is where multiple supports converge: the 50-week EMA, the 100-SMA on the 3D chart, the YTD anchored VWAP, and the cycle trendline that has held this entire bull market.

Market Milestones
Market Milestones: Waiting on Jerome

Market Milestones: Waiting on Jerome

Market Milestones: Waiting on JeromeYates Craig
Published on: 22/08/2025

If we break above Wednesday’s hammer on SPY, we likely push toward $650. If we break below, $620 comes into play. NVDA earnings next Wednesday after the close will complicate things further—how the stock trades will almost certainly sway the market’s next big move. Time will tell, but September could finally deliver the pullback everyone has been waiting for.

Market Milestones
Market Milestones: Bull Trap

Market Milestones: Bull Trap

Market Milestones: Bull TrapYates Craig
Published on: 15/08/2025

On Thursday, BTC gave us a bull trap. It’s done so four other times in this cycle and twice—very notably—in the last cycle. Both the April and November 2021 tops had this exact pattern: an all-time-high trap followed by major drawdowns. Each time we’ve seen this bull trap, the market has dropped, broken its prior higher low, and seen the RSI dip to oversold (27 on the daily chart)

Market Milestones
Maket Milestones: Reversal?

Maket Milestones: Reversal?

Maket Milestones: Reversal?Yates Craig
Published on: 01/08/2025

The dip—which has taken longer to show up than I’d like—may finally be around the corner. It’s been about as elusive since April as Bigfoot, but the signs are adding up right now.

Market Milestones

* All investments carry a certain level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Please consider your objectives and risk tolerance before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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