After a bit of selling on Wednesday, SPY pushed right back into the major resistance zone at $672—a level it’s struggled with throughout October. If the market can break through that level with conviction, the next upside target sits around $680 as we move into November. However, if SPY fails to clear $672 and rejects again, the major support to watch is $655, which has held firm since mid-September. That level should continue to act as strong support, but if it breaks, a quick drop into the $640 area becomes a high probability. That kind of dip would be buyable, as long as the 100-day SMA holds—or is quickly reclaimed after a brief overshoot.

SPY Daily

The broader trend remains firmly bullish. The momentum this market has carried since April looks poised to continue through the end of the year and into 2026. As long as key supports hold, the path of least resistance is still higher. I’d actually welcome a deeper pullback—something more meaningful than the 3% dips we’ve seen so far in this bull run. If we continue to grind higher with no correction into early 2026, I’d expect a more significant drop sometime in Q1. That’s how these cycles tend to play out, and there’s no reason to think this time will be different.

Even when overlaying the most bullish historical price action that resembles our current setup, the dot com bull run, periods of heightened volatility still emerged—ultimately creating buyable dips within a larger uptrend. With that in mind, the higher we go without a reset, the more I’ll look to raise cash, lock in profits, and tighten risk. I’ll be quicker to protect gains and more active in selling covered calls or buying protective puts.

SPY with Dot Com Analog

There’s simply no reason to be bearish on this market right now. The only people shorting aggressively are those trying to call the exact top—a nearly impossible task. It’s far easier to follow the trend and get defensive only once price breaks key support. For me, that line in the sand is the 100-day SMA on SPY. As long as we hold above it, it’s full steam ahead until proven otherwise.

The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 28—just three points away from “Extreme Fear”—while the market itself is less than half a percent away from new all-time highs. That’s wild. Typically, this indicator is most useful at the extremes: buying into the most Extreme Fear and selling into the most Extreme Greed. It hit a reading of 3 on April 8th, just one day before the exact bottom of this market! Anything between those extremes is mostly noise, but this setup is worth noting.

The last time we saw a similar situation—SPY showing Extreme Fear while sitting just below all-time highs—was in December 2024. That reading came 62 days before the February 19th, 2025 top. There are some interesting and fairly obvious parallels between the December 18th, 2024 candle and the October 10th, 2025 candle we just saw. This similarity adds to my view that volatility could pick up toward the end of the year or into 2026—but also that there’s likely still some room to run before that happens.

Fear & Greed

As for Bitcoin—if you’re expecting a groundbreaking update, this might disappoint you. Not much has changed since my last Bitcoin newsletter. I still view the midlines of the parallel channel (the red lines on my chart) as key resistance zones for this cycle. That keeps my base case for BTC topping somewhere within the red box. If Bitcoin can push convincingly above those resistance levels, we could be looking at a much more bullish scenario—potentially into the $200,000 range. However, given that BTC hasn’t seen a true phase of price discovery once in 2025, that feels like the less likely outcome right now.

There’s also the possibility that the top is already in after the all-time high trap on October 6th—a case that unfortunately has several data points in its favor. Still, I won’t assume that’s true unless we get a sustained break below the 120 3-day SMA. Historically, Bitcoin has dipped as much as 6% below that moving average in past bull cycles, only to recover quickly—either closing back above on the next candle or leaving just a wick. But any sustained close below it especially if that’s followed by a retest and rejection of the average, would historically mark the end of this cycle. That moving average currently is at $101,420.

Where Bitcoin sits currently, there’s a major confluence of support around $108,000—where the April anchored VWAP, 200-day SMA, and a key horizontal level all align. That zone has acted as strong support since July, and as long as it continues to hold, the low should be in.

BTCUSD