Real Life Trading Blog
Yates CraigThe next five to ten years may be the final stretch where the economic system still resembles what we know. This is our window. Now is the time to earn aggressively, invest strategically, and accumulate assets that can thrive in a post-AI world. Blog Post Description
Yates CraigGiven that the current probabilities favor the next dip being a buying opportunity (with a lower chance of a significant breakdown), now is the time to strategize our entry points, target buy levels, and set our stop and alert levels. As long as we manage risk effectively, the next pullback should offer a compelling risk-reward scenario heading into the summer and early fall. However, we must remain vigilant. A sharp, vertical drop triggered by negative news could quickly shift the probabilities towards a retest of the lows or even a deeper correction. We'll be closely monitoring the nature of any pullbacks in the coming weeks.
Yates CraigSentiment in the markets flips on a dime. Just one month ago, we were at a 3—deep in “extreme fear” on the Fear & Greed Index. Today, we’re at 62, firmly in “greed.”
Yates CraigWe also saw a Death Cross on the QQQ on April 14th. I joked that day that the market is now destined to go to zero—but in reality, it’s an interesting indicator, even if it is overhyped and over-discussed. It’s not a tool to time market tops or bottoms, but it can help gauge big-picture direction. Today, we’re going to compare the 2022 Death Cross with today’s setup and look for key similarities and differences.
Yates CraigThe markets finished the week strong after bouncing off the 100-week SMA. There are three days left in the month, but as it stands, SPY and QQQ are printing massive monthly hammer candles. I went back through history to find similar massive hammer candles and study how they behaved.
Yates CraigBetween tariffs and earnings, you’d think it couldn’t get any crazier—yet here we are. TLT still can’t catch a bid no matter what’s happening. It’s been in a downtrend since the double rate cut whammy back in September. Even during a technical bear market, TLT couldn’t find buyers. In fact, the bond market forced a pivot from the Trump administration on April 9th. This is a major problem for the U.S., which needs lower interest rates to refinance nearly a third of its absurdly massive debt load this year. If you're still holding onto the old-school 60/40 portfolio, you've likely been punished in both of the last two bear markets—2022 and now. Bonds didn’t hedge anything. That’s exactly why I’ve shifted to what I call the millennial 60/40 split: 60% Bitcoin, 40% equities. It's a modern, conviction-based portfolio allocation for those who have been truly orange pilled.
Real Life Trading Blog
Yates CraigThe next five to ten years may be the final stretch where the economic system still resembles what we know. This is our window. Now is the time to earn aggressively, invest strategically, and accumulate assets that can thrive in a post-AI world. Blog Post Description
Yates CraigGiven that the current probabilities favor the next dip being a buying opportunity (with a lower chance of a significant breakdown), now is the time to strategize our entry points, target buy levels, and set our stop and alert levels. As long as we manage risk effectively, the next pullback should offer a compelling risk-reward scenario heading into the summer and early fall. However, we must remain vigilant. A sharp, vertical drop triggered by negative news could quickly shift the probabilities towards a retest of the lows or even a deeper correction. We'll be closely monitoring the nature of any pullbacks in the coming weeks.
Yates CraigSentiment in the markets flips on a dime. Just one month ago, we were at a 3—deep in “extreme fear” on the Fear & Greed Index. Today, we’re at 62, firmly in “greed.”
Yates CraigWe also saw a Death Cross on the QQQ on April 14th. I joked that day that the market is now destined to go to zero—but in reality, it’s an interesting indicator, even if it is overhyped and over-discussed. It’s not a tool to time market tops or bottoms, but it can help gauge big-picture direction. Today, we’re going to compare the 2022 Death Cross with today’s setup and look for key similarities and differences.
Yates CraigThe markets finished the week strong after bouncing off the 100-week SMA. There are three days left in the month, but as it stands, SPY and QQQ are printing massive monthly hammer candles. I went back through history to find similar massive hammer candles and study how they behaved.
Yates CraigBetween tariffs and earnings, you’d think it couldn’t get any crazier—yet here we are. TLT still can’t catch a bid no matter what’s happening. It’s been in a downtrend since the double rate cut whammy back in September. Even during a technical bear market, TLT couldn’t find buyers. In fact, the bond market forced a pivot from the Trump administration on April 9th. This is a major problem for the U.S., which needs lower interest rates to refinance nearly a third of its absurdly massive debt load this year. If you're still holding onto the old-school 60/40 portfolio, you've likely been punished in both of the last two bear markets—2022 and now. Bonds didn’t hedge anything. That’s exactly why I’ve shifted to what I call the millennial 60/40 split: 60% Bitcoin, 40% equities. It's a modern, conviction-based portfolio allocation for those who have been truly orange pilled.
* All investments carry a certain level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Please consider your objectives and risk tolerance before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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