There are some signs that we’re nearing a correction. Sure, I’ve said this before—but this time I mean it. Ever since the May 12th gap, I’ve actually been pretty bullish, and the market has rewarded that view. But we’re once again seeing signs of exhaustion that are getting harder to ignore.

Take the QQQ, for example. It’s formed a rising wedge pattern over the past month, slowly grinding higher on declining volume, while also showing bearish RSI divergence. Could it still melt up into new all-time highs? Absolutely. But I don’t see a realistic path where it continues much higher without a sizable dip in the next month or two.

QQQ

SPY is showing a very similar setup—another rising wedge near all-time highs, hitting my 2015 analog target of $604. Just like QQQ, it’s making new highs on weaker volume and bearish RSI divergence. I could easily see a final pop to the $616 level, a new all-time high and my 2018 analog target, before a more meaningful pullback begins. The 2018 analog fits our current price action even better than the 2015 and 2020 analogs—and it aligns nicely with my Elliott Wave count. History tends to rhyme, and these analogs have been extremely useful when paired with Elliott Wave, support/resistance levels, long-term moving averages, and other forms of technical analysis that we do here at RLT.

SPY

Another yellow flag: market breadth. As SPY inches toward its all-time highs (less than 2% away as of Thursday), only about 50% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day SMA. That’s weak breadth for this bull run, and divergences are continuing to stack up. You can also see this in the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP), which is still 5% away from its all-time highs and hasn’t even broken its May high—unlike SPY. A lot of the names carrying this rally are extended and looking like they need a breather.

Percent of S&P 500 Stocks Above 200-Day SMA

Speaking of breathers—Bitcoin is pulling back as I write this. It’s now down three days in a row after retracing 88% of the May pullback—the exact level I highlighted last week in our Slack channel where we wanted to see it reject.

The key to the early June move up off the low is that it always stayed a 3-wave move and never developed into a 5-wave impulse. That signaled to me it was most likely a B wave—meaning a C wave to new lows is incoming. This vertical drop, ironically enough, keeps our super bullish wave count alive and suggests we may get to buy more in the $90,000s once again.

We are currently pulling back sharply because of the Israel-Iran conflict news, but the drop had already begun before that broke, signaling broader risk-off sentiment.

My BTC buy zone has remained unchanged since May 23: I’m looking to add between $98,000 and $92,000, with a hard line at $88,000 for major support. For IBIT, that translates to buying in the $56–$52 range, with a $50 line in the sand. Even in a less bullish scenario, I see a move back to around $123,456.78—about 30% upside from that zone. In the most bullish case? There’s potential for a 100% move from here… but shhhhhh, let’s not say that part too loud.

BTCUSD

If you’re thinking about YOLOing into it at these levels, just first ask yourself: why weren’t you buying at $85,000–$75,000 a few months ago? And why are you buying now? My guess is FOMO is playing a large role in that decision—and FOMO is a no-no when it comes to trading and investing.

Sure, the long-term potential is massive—I do think BTC will one day be seven-figures per coin—but that doesn't mean risk is low right here. If you can’t (or don’t want to) stomach a potential 50% - 70% drawdown—less than a typical crypto winter—be sure to manage your risk accordingly. This is a wonderful but very volatile asset. Respect the volatility, and plan your trades.

In conclusion, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the Israel-Iran conflict will unfold or how deeply it will impact global markets—but history is clear: wars are often moments where sharp sell-offs create some of the best buying opportunities. As unsettling as it sounds, major geopolitical shocks tend to shake out weak hands and reset risk. Even if this conflict doesn’t spark a larger correction, something else likely will in the next few weeks. And when it does, we’ll be ready—prepared to step in at better levels with far more attractive risk-reward across the board.