Market Milestones: Magnificent Charts

The SPY is back near all-time highs, while the QQQ continues to struggle and chop beneath its December 18th candle. This weakness comes from the underperformance of the majority of the Magnificent Seven, most of which remain well off their highs. The SPY still has both its green and red counts that we are tracking in play, and Friday’s jobs report could be the deciding factor in which direction the market moves next. A strong gap down would confirm that weakness in big tech was an early warning sign and that the market’s recent rally wasn’t sustainable. Conversely, a gap up would suggest that these major names are likely bottoming, which could clear up the recent divergence. If that happens, the lagging tech stocks could catch up, presenting solid trade opportunities over the next few weeks.

SPY

Apple is still 10% below its all-time high, sitting comfortably under its 100-day SMA. Last week’s earnings candle was an absolutely brutal bearish engulfing pattern—like Darth Vader’s lightsaber slicing through the bulls. After all the damage Mr. Vader did to this chart, I’d expect some chop between the two long-term moving averages. The key support and resistance levels for AAPL are $237 and $220. As long as price remains between those, expect a chop fest to continue.

AAPL

Nvidia is down 16% from its peak, also resting well below its 100-day SMA. It managed to reclaim its 200-day SMA on Wednesday, but it's still 10% away from filling its DeepSeek gap. Expect resistance and consolidation around $132-$134, and if it loses the 200-day SMA, things could get pretty ugly as it sells off toward the August 5th lows again. If that plays out, I'll be looking to buy a bunch more NVDA at that level.

NVDA

Microsoft, the weakest of the three big tech names, is trading 10% below its all-time high from July 2024. It has broken through nearly every trendline imaginable and remains well below both its 100-day and 200-day SMAs. The key level to watch is $408—if it holds, we could see some upside, but if it fails, a pullback to the weekly 100-day SMA at $381 seems likely. MSFT can certainly go higher from here, but that $408 level is crucial for stops and protection.

MSFT

Google, one of the stronger Magnificent Seven names, recently fell off a small cliff, gapping down after earnings and now sitting 8% lower in a sharp gap-and-go move. Options pricing suggests the market doesn’t expect much more downside, but a break below Wednesday’s and Thursday’s candles could trigger more selling, likely into the 100-day and 200-day SMAs. At those levels, the risk-reward on GOOGL starts looking pretty attractive again.

GOOGL

Amazon, another relatively strong performer, is gapping down Thursday night after earnings, dipping into prices not seen in nine whole days. It's still only 6% off its all-time high, with strong support at $226. However, a break below that level and the January 27th candle could lead to further downside, possibly testing the 100-day SMA.

AMZN

Meta remains the strongest of the group, defying all expectations and hitting new all-time highs day after day. It’s the only Magnificent Seven stock still sitting at its highs. META is up 20% in 2025 and apparently has no plans of stopping. Mark Zuckerberg is out here doing Murph workouts, leveling up his jiu-jitsu game, and—apparently—winning at AI too.

META

Tesla has had a rough start to 2025. On Thursday, it broke below key support but managed to close with a hammer candle, keeping hopes alive for a potential reversal. However, the fact that support didn’t hold more convincingly is concerning for the immediate bull case. There’s a argument to be made that Thursday’s hammer marked the completion of the C wave, but any break below that low likely opens the door to an interaction with the 100-day SMA. Bulls need this hammer to hold—otherwise, 2025 will remain dominated by the bears.

TSLA

We talked in-depth about Bitcoin last week, and it did indeed pull back into the $94,000 level before holding firm and bouncing strongly at the rock-solid $92,000 support. However, since then, altcoins have been showing increasing weakness, and BTC looks more and more like it wants to test the conviction of longs by breaking through that $92,000 level, which has held strong since mid-November.

If $92,000 gives way, we’re likely looking at a swift move down into the low-to-mid $80,000s. The 200-day SMA sits at $78,000, and I wouldn’t want to see that breached. If Bitcoin does break down, expect your favorite altcoin to take an absolute beating in the process.

That said, we can also watch for one of the best Bitcoin buy signals: oversold RSI. Historically, buying BTC when RSI drops below 30 and then holding until a new all-time high has been an excellent strategy. It’s a powerful bottoming signal—even in bear markets.

I’ll be looking to pick up a share or two of IBIT if Bitcoin drops into the $80,000 range, and I’ll add a couple more if we get an oversold RSI signal at the same time.

BTC