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Welcome to the RLT Newsletter
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Emails That Grow Your Wealth: How the RLT Newsletter Boosts Your Retirement Account and More
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Are the stocks reviewed in the Tuesday Top Trade Video part of the 4 portfolios?
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What is the Prosperity Portfolio?
The Prosperity Portfolio is a long-term swing trading system that focuses exclusively on the QQQ. This long-only strategy aims to outperform the market by staying out during bearish periods and remaining invested during bullish trends. Unlike traditional buy-and-hold strategies, it actively manages downside risk, making it ideal for long-term investors seeking steady growth with reduced volatility. With only a handful of trades each year, it’s a time-efficient resource for those who want to grow their portfolio without the need for frequent trading.
What is the YOLO MOMO Portfolio?
YOLO, short for “you only live once,” paired with MOMO, short for “momentum,” defines the essence of the YOLO MOMO Portfolio. This momentum-driven, aggressive swing trading strategy focuses on capturing significant moves in the market’s strongest-performing tech stocks. With an emphasis on relative strength and excellent risk-reward setups, this system offers the potential for outsized returns. It comes with high volatility and large portfolio swings, making it an ideal resource for traders seeking aggressive growth and who are comfortable taking on higher levels of risk.
What is the RL Swing Stalker Portfolio?
The RL Swing Stalker Portfolio is a short-term swing trading system that leverages advanced market scans to uncover opportunities. Using the R system for precise risk management, this strategy takes both bullish and bearish trades to maximize profit potential. It’s an ideal resource for active traders looking for a system with well-defined risk parameters and frequent trading opportunities.
What is the HODL Hero’s Portfolio?
The HODL Hero’s Portfolio is a long-term investing strategy aimed at achieving substantial returns by holding high-quality stocks for extended periods. Risk is managed using advanced options strategies. This long-term portfolio does not use the R system for risk management, meaning it can experience larger drawdowns. This portfolio is a resource for long term investors focused on long-term growth and who are willing to embrace more volatility.
DISCLAIMER - PLEASE READ BEFORE MAKING ANY RLT NEWSLETTER TRADES
Disclaimer: Each portfolio in the RLT Newsletter is a hypothetical paper trading account. Real Life Trading and its analysts use these portfolios as an educational tool. It’s important to note that Real Life Trading nor its analysts are actively managing live, real-money portfolios. The analysts and moderators may or may not trade any of the given equities.
CFTC Rule 4.41: These results are based on hypothetical or simulated performance results with inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records, these results do not represent real trading. Because these trades haven't been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact of certain market factors, such as the lack of liquidity. Hypothetical or simulated trading programs are designed with the benefit of hindsight, and no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Trading Risks: Real Life Trading LLC (“Company”) is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. The independent contractors, employees or affiliates of Company may hold positions in the stocks, options, currencies or industries discussed here. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities, options and/or currencies. The Company assumes no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any individual trader or trading system presented by the Company are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which will be realized by you. In addition, the indicators, strategies, and all other features of Company’s products (collectively, the “Information”) are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
MONEY MAKING BLOGS
Market Milestones – Pursuing Poetry
This week, Jerremy Newsome and I discussed the absolutely relentless bullishness we’ve seen over the last month—and where we think the market is headed next. As I’ve said several times now, the 5/12 gap changed the game. That gap over resistance, over the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, and over the bullish trendline on QQQ was a big deal. As long as that gap holds, along with the key support at $575, the market should keep grinding higher.
Back in April when the market was falling hard, Jerremy compared the setup to Brexit—and we were both saying it looked like a very buyable event. That Brexit analog has continued to play out nicely. But now, we may be looking at an even more bullish setup, one more similar to the Covid recovery. If either of these scenarios is playing out, we should push higher for at least another 1–2 weeks. The Covid analog points to a move toward $630 before a meaningful pullback. The Brexit analog suggests a push to around $605.
Let’s break each one down to get a better idea of where we could be headed. History, and stock charts tend to rhyme, so let's find some poetry together.
COVID 2020 vs. Liberation Day 2025
Similarities:
The Covid crash lasted 23 trading days. The Liberation Day crash lasted 33 trading days. Sharp, fast drawdowns in both cases.
Both initial bounces off the lows were fierce: 2020 rallied 18% in 4 days, while 2025 saw a 14% move in just 3 days—both major short squeezes to form the bottom.
Both of those initial rallies were quickly retested: 2020 gave back 38.2% of the initial rally, while 2025 pulled back 61.8%.
The very early retests were the only decent pullbacks before both markets launched higher again with very few dips.
Last Friday’s drop into the 100-day and 200-day SMAs closely mirrors the June 15, 2020 drop. Both dips occurred just under the 88% retracement of the crash and both found support at the 200-day SMA before gapping higher the next day.
Covid’s retest after the 88% retracement was a little over 8%; the 2025 retest was about 3.5%. Still, structurally they look very similar.
Where it could go next:
If these similarities continue, we could either push directly higher from here or get one more retest of the $576 level—potentially forming a double bottom, just like we did in 2020—before pushing to new all-time highs in June.
One key difference between the two moves is the size and timing. The 2020 drawdown was 36%; in 2025, it was 21%. The 2020 recovery to the 88% retracement level took 53 days. This year, it's only taken 29 days. However, the ratios of these moves are actually somewhat consistent:
Drawdown: 21 days vs. 36 days = 0.58
Days to recover: 29 days vs. 53 days = 0.54
Retest depth: 3.5% vs. 8% = 0.43
If we take these rough ratios and do some dubious speculating, we could be on track for a move to around $630 before a larger pullback. That would be about 3% above the all-time high—half the 6% post-recovery push seen during the Covid rally.
SPY 2020 vs 2025
Brexit 2015 vs. Liberation Day 2025
Similarities:
The 2015 Brexit drop took 25 trading days. The 2025 Liberation Day drop took 33. However, most of the Brexit damage happened in 5 days, while most of the 2025 drop happened in 3.
In both cases, we saw a face-ripping short squeeze off the bottom. In 2015 and 2025, the market retraced 50% of the crash in just 3 and 4 days, respectively.
2015 experienced a deeper retest off the initial move off of the bottom, retracing 76%, versus the 61.8% retrace in 2025.
After those retests, both markets moved mostly vertically, with very similar gap-ups over and pushes through the long-term moving averages.
In 2015, once the market gapped up over the 200-day SMA and held that level, it continued grinding higher above the 88% retracement. However, it fell just short of new all-time highs—topping out about 1% below the previous high at the 93% retracement level.
Once the 2015 market broke back below the 200-day SMA, the rally ended. Lower highs followed, and eventually a new low was made.
What it suggests now:
If this scenario plays out again, we could be very close to a top right now, with a target between $603–$605 before a larger pullback.
It’s not my base case that SPY returns to new lows from here. We’ve built a ton of solid support underneath us. But anything’s possible. If we start gapping down hard and closing below key levels—just like we did in December 2015—that’s when it’s time to get cautious.
For now, I believe the next larger retest of the April–May price action will be a buying opportunity. The only real question now is how high we go before that pullback begins. If SPY breaks and closes below $575, I’ll consider that a signal for a correction—and I’ll be looking to buy that dip. We’ll keep everyone posted on our favorite setups and buy zones if that happens.
SPY 2015 vs 2025
Market Milestones – Pursuing Poetry
This week, Jerremy Newsome and I discussed the absolutely relentless bullishness we’ve seen over the last month—and where we think the market is headed next. As I’ve said several times now, the 5/12 gap changed the game. That gap over resistance, over the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, and over the bullish trendline on QQQ was a big deal. As long as that gap holds, along with the key support at $575, the market should keep grinding higher.
Back in April when the market was falling hard, Jerremy compared the setup to Brexit—and we were both saying it looked like a very buyable event. That Brexit analog has continued to play out nicely. But now, we may be looking at an even more bullish setup, one more similar to the Covid recovery. If either of these scenarios is playing out, we should push higher for at least another 1–2 weeks. The Covid analog points to a move toward $630 before a meaningful pullback. The Brexit analog suggests a push to around $605.
Let’s break each one down to get a better idea of where we could be headed. History, and stock charts tend to rhyme, so let's find some poetry together.
COVID 2020 vs. Liberation Day 2025
Similarities:
The Covid crash lasted 23 trading days. The Liberation Day crash lasted 33 trading days. Sharp, fast drawdowns in both cases.
Both initial bounces off the lows were fierce: 2020 rallied 18% in 4 days, while 2025 saw a 14% move in just 3 days—both major short squeezes to form the bottom.
Both of those initial rallies were quickly retested: 2020 gave back 38.2% of the initial rally, while 2025 pulled back 61.8%.
The very early retests were the only decent pullbacks before both markets launched higher again with very few dips.
Last Friday’s drop into the 100-day and 200-day SMAs closely mirrors the June 15, 2020 drop. Both dips occurred just under the 88% retracement of the crash and both found support at the 200-day SMA before gapping higher the next day.
Covid’s retest after the 88% retracement was a little over 8%; the 2025 retest was about 3.5%. Still, structurally they look very similar.
Where it could go next:
If these similarities continue, we could either push directly higher from here or get one more retest of the $576 level—potentially forming a double bottom, just like we did in 2020—before pushing to new all-time highs in June.
One key difference between the two moves is the size and timing. The 2020 drawdown was 36%; in 2025, it was 21%. The 2020 recovery to the 88% retracement level took 53 days. This year, it's only taken 29 days. However, the ratios of these moves are actually somewhat consistent:
Drawdown: 21 days vs. 36 days = 0.58
Days to recover: 29 days vs. 53 days = 0.54
Retest depth: 3.5% vs. 8% = 0.43
If we take these rough ratios and do some dubious speculating, we could be on track for a move to around $630 before a larger pullback. That would be about 3% above the all-time high—half the 6% post-recovery push seen during the Covid rally.
SPY 2020 vs 2025
Brexit 2015 vs. Liberation Day 2025
Similarities:
The 2015 Brexit drop took 25 trading days. The 2025 Liberation Day drop took 33. However, most of the Brexit damage happened in 5 days, while most of the 2025 drop happened in 3.
In both cases, we saw a face-ripping short squeeze off the bottom. In 2015 and 2025, the market retraced 50% of the crash in just 3 and 4 days, respectively.
2015 experienced a deeper retest off the initial move off of the bottom, retracing 76%, versus the 61.8% retrace in 2025.
After those retests, both markets moved mostly vertically, with very similar gap-ups over and pushes through the long-term moving averages.
In 2015, once the market gapped up over the 200-day SMA and held that level, it continued grinding higher above the 88% retracement. However, it fell just short of new all-time highs—topping out about 1% below the previous high at the 93% retracement level.
Once the 2015 market broke back below the 200-day SMA, the rally ended. Lower highs followed, and eventually a new low was made.
What it suggests now:
If this scenario plays out again, we could be very close to a top right now, with a target between $603–$605 before a larger pullback.
It’s not my base case that SPY returns to new lows from here. We’ve built a ton of solid support underneath us. But anything’s possible. If we start gapping down hard and closing below key levels—just like we did in December 2015—that’s when it’s time to get cautious.
For now, I believe the next larger retest of the April–May price action will be a buying opportunity. The only real question now is how high we go before that pullback begins. If SPY breaks and closes below $575, I’ll consider that a signal for a correction—and I’ll be looking to buy that dip. We’ll keep everyone posted on our favorite setups and buy zones if that happens.
SPY 2015 vs 2025
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