Real Life Trading Blog

Market Milestones: Extreme Fear Near All Time Highs

Yates Craig

Published on: 24/10/2025

The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 28—just three points away from “Extreme Fear”—while the market itself is less than half a percent away from new all-time highs. That’s wild. Typically, this indicator is most useful at the extremes: buying into the most Extreme Fear and selling into the most Extreme Greed. It hit a reading of 3 on April 8th, just one day before the exact bottom of this market! Anything between those extremes is mostly noise, but this setup is worth noting.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Uptober or Octobear

Yates Craig

Published on: 17/10/2025

Last week’s SPY candle was a bearish engulfing pattern that wiped out the prior three weeks of gains. This week, so far, is shaping up as an inside high-wave candle—showing that pressure is building. If we do break down from here, I’ll be watching the 100-day SMA, 20-week EMA, and anchored VWAP from the May 12th breakout gap as critical support levels.

Market Milestones

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from Complacency

Yates Craig

Published on: 03/10/2025

This month isn’t about punishment or proving anything to anyone else—it’s about growth. It’s about refusing to drift through life on autopilot, about reclaiming my attention, my body, and my soul from the comfort that lulls me into complacency. I want to feel alive, challenged, and fully present in every moment I’m given.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Breakdown

Yates Craig

Published on: 26/09/2025

We saw Bitcoin and the broader crypto market break down on Thursday, sparking panic and renewed fears that the top is in. That’s certainly possible, and I’ve been warning about the bull trap since August 14th. In past cycles, every bull trap led to a significant drawdown—22% at the shallow end, 77% at the steepest. A 22% pullback would take BTC to around $97,000, which also lines up with the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart. That’s the moving average I use to separate bull and bear cycles, and it’s been reliable this run.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Bull Market Support

Yates Craig

Published on: 04/09/2025

September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin and this one is setting up no differently. The current double top is playing out with a clean neckline retest on September 3rd. The double top measured move targets the $95k–$100k range. This is where multiple supports converge: the 50-week EMA, the 100-SMA on the 3D chart, the YTD anchored VWAP, and the cycle trendline that has held this entire bull market.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Waiting on Jerome

Yates Craig

Published on: 22/08/2025

If we break above Wednesday’s hammer on SPY, we likely push toward $650. If we break below, $620 comes into play. NVDA earnings next Wednesday after the close will complicate things further—how the stock trades will almost certainly sway the market’s next big move. Time will tell, but September could finally deliver the pullback everyone has been waiting for.

Market Milestones

Real Life Trading Blog

Market Milestones: Extreme Fear Near All Time Highs

Yates Craig

Published on: 24/10/2025

The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 28—just three points away from “Extreme Fear”—while the market itself is less than half a percent away from new all-time highs. That’s wild. Typically, this indicator is most useful at the extremes: buying into the most Extreme Fear and selling into the most Extreme Greed. It hit a reading of 3 on April 8th, just one day before the exact bottom of this market! Anything between those extremes is mostly noise, but this setup is worth noting.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Uptober or Octobear

Yates Craig

Published on: 17/10/2025

Last week’s SPY candle was a bearish engulfing pattern that wiped out the prior three weeks of gains. This week, so far, is shaping up as an inside high-wave candle—showing that pressure is building. If we do break down from here, I’ll be watching the 100-day SMA, 20-week EMA, and anchored VWAP from the May 12th breakout gap as critical support levels.

Market Milestones

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from Complacency

Yates Craig

Published on: 03/10/2025

This month isn’t about punishment or proving anything to anyone else—it’s about growth. It’s about refusing to drift through life on autopilot, about reclaiming my attention, my body, and my soul from the comfort that lulls me into complacency. I want to feel alive, challenged, and fully present in every moment I’m given.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Breakdown

Yates Craig

Published on: 26/09/2025

We saw Bitcoin and the broader crypto market break down on Thursday, sparking panic and renewed fears that the top is in. That’s certainly possible, and I’ve been warning about the bull trap since August 14th. In past cycles, every bull trap led to a significant drawdown—22% at the shallow end, 77% at the steepest. A 22% pullback would take BTC to around $97,000, which also lines up with the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart. That’s the moving average I use to separate bull and bear cycles, and it’s been reliable this run.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Bull Market Support

Yates Craig

Published on: 04/09/2025

September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin and this one is setting up no differently. The current double top is playing out with a clean neckline retest on September 3rd. The double top measured move targets the $95k–$100k range. This is where multiple supports converge: the 50-week EMA, the 100-SMA on the 3D chart, the YTD anchored VWAP, and the cycle trendline that has held this entire bull market.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Waiting on Jerome

Yates Craig

Published on: 22/08/2025

If we break above Wednesday’s hammer on SPY, we likely push toward $650. If we break below, $620 comes into play. NVDA earnings next Wednesday after the close will complicate things further—how the stock trades will almost certainly sway the market’s next big move. Time will tell, but September could finally deliver the pullback everyone has been waiting for.

Market Milestones

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