After the three-day bullish laser beam we saw when the SPY hit the 100-day SMA, momentum has slowed. We’ve gone slightly higher or sideways each day over the last week. QQQ hasn’t yet filled its overhead gap at 629.85, but it’s trying—and if it gets there without any pullback first, that gap becomes a great target for profit taking for any longs entered off of the 100-day SMA.

It’s hard to view this market as anything but bullish right now. Sure, when the 100-day SMA almost failed on November 20th, a larger drop was possible. But even in that scenario, nothing in the economy or in market fundamentals pointed to anything unusual on the downside. I do think we see a normal 10%+ pullback in the first half of 2026, but as long as key supports hold and the big names keep posting numbers that justify valuations, the trend remains higher for longer.

QQQ

Speaking of higher for longer, this is the last Market Milestone before next week’s rate cut. And yes—it’s now nearly certain we get one on December 10th. The market is currently pricing in two cuts for 2026, but those odds are noisy this far out. Two big reasons: First, the Fed is always behind the eight ball and scrambling, meaning they barely know what they’ll do in three months, let alone a year. Second, Jerome Powell’s term ends May 15th, 2026, and President Trump will be selecting the next Fed Chair. Based on Trump’s prior comments, I expect someone far more focused on growth than inflation restraint—which implies an easier-money environment. That would be bullish for equities. The Fed Chair announcement early next year will almost certainly create a big, volatile day in markets which I am looking forward to trading.

With the ongoing existence of the Fed put—their willingness to backstop almost anything in the U.S. economy if things get messy—monetary policy continues to be one of the biggest drivers of equities. Combine that with AI’s massive growth trajectory, and I’m bullish—that is as long as key supports don’t break.

Target Fed Rate Probabilities

The main supports I’m watching are the 100-day SMA on both QQQ and SPY. If those hold on any near-term weakness, I think we get a strong push over the next month or two, possibly longer into next year. This market has gone straight up for eight months in one of the most vertical stretches in history. Pullbacks have been tiny—the recent 5.8% drop in SPY was the largest of the entire run. Because that drop hit the 100-day and ripped higher off extreme fear readings, I can see a scenario where we push into $700–$714 on SPY to start out 2026. The dot-com analog we’ve been tracking has us moving into the 1.618 extension in February before the next meaningful dip.

SPY Dot Com Analog

We’re also seeing IWM outperform, coming within pennies of a new all-time high on Thursday. Small caps are coming back from the dead as risk appetite increases. The move has been extremely vertical, and realistically, we’re probably nearing the point where a rest-and-retest comes. If that weakness shows up in the next week or two, I’ll be using it as an opportunity to get long with clean risk-reward and clear support below.

IWM

NVDA—the world’s largest company by the narrowest of margins—has managed to hold the 100-day SMA. I go back and forth on whether it makes a lower low, mostly because it flips above and below the 100-day every other day. But the hammer on November 20th with strong volume is a solid signal that the low might be in. If it starts holding comfortably above the 100-day, that shifts the odds toward a bottom. It already dropped 20% from the peak and posted stellar earnings just weeks ago. I’d be surprised if we don’t hit a new ATH sometime next quarter—roughly 17% above current levels. It could still dip, and if it does, I’ll happily buy down to the 200-day SMA, which also lines up with the prior ATH—a near-perfect buy zone. I’m long now and will add on a new low while protecting the position and targeting new highs.

NVDA

Speaking of buying off the 200-day SMA and prior ATH, that’s exactly what I did in MSFT on November 25th—a trade I had been talking about for weeks. A lot of you took that same setup, just like the 100-week SMA on META, which paid beautifully on Thursday’s open. MSFT hasn’t had its META-style vertical move yet, but as long as it holds the 200-day, this could be the start of its push into new all-time highs.

I did get a little cute with it—something that often doesn’t work out quite as well as I hope—but this time it lined up nicely. I took profits at $491, which is the massive double-top neckline, a pattern that becomes a lot more relevant if we break below the 200-day SMA.

After that, I bought back in on Thursday at the gap fill around $479. That gives me roughly $10 of risk down to the 200-day SMA and lets me re-enter about $10 below where I sold it. I made $24 per share on the first trade and am now risking $10–15 per share on the second. That’s basically the ideal sequence in my book.

I shared all of these trades in real time in the Swing Trade & Investing channel for members. Usually when I try to get cute like that, the stock gaps up 47,000% the next morning after I take profits and I’m left sitting there holding worthless cash—but this time it worked...so far.

MSFT