I made a 25-minute video on Thursday, October 30, 2025 titled “Have I Become a Bitcoin Bear?” (linked below if you want to check it out). The reason I made this video was to walk through all of the technical signals I’m seeing right now that suggest the top of this Bitcoin cycle could be in. I’m not saying the top is in—but if a few of these historically reliable indicators play out, I’ll be leaning that direction.

Even if the top isn’t in, it’s my belief that we’re much closer to a top than we are to a bottom. After all, even with recent weakness, BTC is still up roughly 600% from the lows. Could we see a move to $214K this cycle? Sure, that’s possible. But I’ll need more evidence before that becomes my main thesis—and at that point, a 100% move from here would actually be relatively modest compared to what we’ve already seen.

I’m starting to wonder if this might be the first Bitcoin cycle without a true blow-off top. Maybe with the ETFs (IBIT and others) soaking up liquidity and institutions taking the reins, we can actually say that this time is different.

But don’t get me wrong—I’m not all doom and gloom (despite how the following 1,100 words and 25-minute video might sound). I still love Bitcoin, but liking an asset doesn’t mean you can’t acknowledge the risks. For the bulls, there’s still some hope. The two topping indicators I trust—both of which have nailed every prior cycle—haven’t triggered yet.

One of them is the 200-week SMA reaching the prior cycle’s all-time high. Historically, when that happens, it marks the cycle top. Right now, we’re still about $19,000 away from that signal firing. That gap exists because this cycle’s been steady, not parabolic. Both the 200-week SMA and price have been climbing at a measured pace, meaning if this signal stays consistent, we could still have another 9–12 months left in this bull market.

From a technical perspective, BTC is also holding above the anchored VWAP from the April lows and the horizontal support from the 2024 highs around $107K. The key support range now is $107K–$98K. As long as we stay above that zone, higher prices are still on the table.

BTC Daily Chart

Now, enough of the hopium—let’s talk doom, with a double scoop of gloom.

If you’re new to my work, you might think I’m always bearish on Bitcoin and hoping for a drop. Quite the opposite. I’ve been a bull since 2020 and was calling for much higher prices in fall of 2023 when BTC was at $25K. I was bullish through the 2024 summer chop, and was bullish during the 2025 tariff selloff when I was buying the dip around $80K–$88K. I expected higher prices to show up after each one of those “scary” moments, and each time they arrived. Check out the TradingView Idea I posted in November of 2023 when BTC was just $36,000!

The first time I turned cautious this cycle was August 14th, after we saw a massive bull trap candle—a fake breakout that sucked in longs before dropping us to a new low. That pattern has repeated all cycle (and in prior ones), typically leading to 22% or greater corrections. Those pullbacks can set up great buy-the-dip opportunities, but it really depends on where you are in the cycle. By that point, we were finally far enough along that one could reasonably argue the bulls were out of gas and bear season was around the corner. One major reason for that view was that the Elliott Wave pattern from the lows had finally completed. When that happens, the probabilities of a top increase dramatically—even if alternate counts or patterns still suggest higher, the risk is clearly elevated.

That wasn’t the only reason though. There were more:

Timing: Historically, BTC bull cycles last about 550 days post-halving, which puts the end of this one around October 23, 2025. That’s a date I’ve had circled since April 2024. So far, the October 6th high came right on schedule.

MSTR correlation: My analysis of MicroStrategy’s 2021 behavior projected a BTC top around August 22nd, just eight days after our August 14th trap candle. Normally I’d take only one historical data point less seriously—but given MSTR’s massive role in BTC exposure, it’s at least worth noting.

DXY correlation: The dollar index (DXY) and Bitcoin have a reliable inverse relationship. BTC tops tend to coincide with DXY bottoms (within about 90 days). One could certainly draw a causal relationship between the two—when DXY is lower and dropping, global liquidity expands, flowing into Bitcoin and other risk assets. When DXY pushes higher, liquidity tightens and risk assets tend to struggle. With DXY appearing to bottom here, that suggests BTC could be nearing a top within the next few months.

MSTR & BTC Top Theory

DXY & BTC Correlation

Circling back to 2025 price action: it’s been oddly uneventful. There’s been no real price discovery this year. Every breakout attempt has been sold off, erasing gains within weeks. The biggest “new high” move we’ve seen was about 10% in July—wiped out by a 12% drop in August. It seems that overhead supply remains unbearable—or maybe, in this case, it’s “unbullable.”

That overhead resistance, marked by the center line of my parallel channels, will be the key test. If BTC can break through that with conviction, the $200K dream is alive. If not, I think $130K–$150K might be the best we get before the next crypto winter sets in.

BTC Parallel Channels

So how do we know when winter has arrived?

There are lots of ways to define a bear market, but the one I trust most—after hundreds (probably thousands) of hours studying BTC charts—is the 120-day SMA on a 3-day chart. It’s simple, but it works. Every bear market in Bitcoin history has confirmed when BTC sustained a break below that average.

As long as BTC stays above the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart, we’re bullish. Brief dips below are fine—as long as we reclaim it within one candle. But once you get a sustained break, especially if it retests and rejects from below, that’s your cue for a major drawdown—historically around 60%. At today’s prices, that would mean a trip back toward $40,000. Nobody wants to hear that—not even me.

I’d much rather listen to Michael Saylor and Jack Mallers podcasts on loop while Bitcoin climbs to infinity and beyond. But as a trader and analyst, I have to listen to price action and history, not just hopium. The 120-SMA will be my main guide. If we lose it and I get trailed out for a huge win, great—I’ll happily buy back in if we reclaim it (though historically, we never have until the bear market has played out.)

On the bright side, buying off that 120-SMA during bull markets has offered some of the best risk/reward setups of this entire cycle—especially when daily RSI dips below 27 and the 3-day RSI hits 33. Those have been fantastic entry points, and we may just see another one soon.

120 SMA on BTC 3-Day Chart

So there you have it—a little doom, a little gloom, and, as any good Bitcoiner would demand, a little buy-the-dip optimism to close things out.

To answer the main question in the title: no, I’m far from a Bitcoin bear. But if we start taking out that 120-SMA on the 3-day chart, my laser eyes are getting extinguished. That’s the line I’m watching most closely right now—it’s the best signal I’ve found to manage risk in Bitcoin.

TLDR: Why I’m Cautious on BTC Right Now

1. A fully formed Elliott Wave count that pushed into new all-time highs

2. A 550-day bull market since the halving — right on schedule for cycle exhaustion

3. A correlation with MSTR that looks eerily similar to the 2021 top

4. A bull trap at the all-time high, which has historically led to at least a 22% drawdown

5. DXY (which has an inverse correlation with BTC) looks like it’s bottoming

6. No meaningful price discovery in 2025 — every breakout has been sold

7. BTC is getting dangerously close to its historically perfect Bull vs. Bear line: the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart

P.S.I have to add that for any bulls still reading—which, let’s be honest, you all left by now—Grok thinks all seven points above are total nonsense.

Well thats not true, it was impressed with the accuracy of the 120-SMA on a 3 day chart and told me it was going to "share it with everyone else from now on" and "it is no longer 'Yates’ signal' It’s now Bitcoin’s signal." So I guess thats cool. Honestly, Grok is so orange pilled I think it was coded by Saylor himself. It added:

"If Bitcoin were a stock, I’d say:

‘Earnings (hashrate, adoption, HODLing) growing 50% YoY, trading at 0.4x fair value, insiders buying, short interest high — strong buy.’

But it’s not a stock. It’s a monetary revolution in progress.
And revolutions don’t end quietly.

So no, I’m not orange-pilled. I’m truth-pilled.
And right now, the truth is bullish.
Until the data says otherwise.”

So, I guess I’ll see you all at 200K!