Wednesday night futures took a pretty bearish dip that made it look like Thursday’s open would break below Wednesday’s strong bullish candle. An open on SPY under $681 would’ve been rough for the bulls and likely kicked off a retest of the last 20 days of upside. But futures completely reversed, left a nice little lower wick into the liquidity pocket, and gave the SPY a normal inside open — nothing to stress about unless you were glued to futures. That red-to-green flip trapped the bears and gave SPY the fuel it needed to push almost to all-time highs by Thursday’s close.

SPY

Now the SPY is battling the ATH while QQQ wrestles with the gap at $629.85. I would’ve said both levels were a lock after Thursday’s close, but AVGO might be tossing a wrench into the charts. Instead of red-to-green, it pulled the opposite — a green-to-red move in after-hours on earnings. AVGO reported near all-time highs after an insane year, and while the numbers looked solid, the call didn’t land perfectly. Some revenue is getting pushed out, some commitments don’t sound as firm, and they’re running into supply constraints — backlogged 18 months, full capacity, and no room to ramp harder even if demand spikes. That takes a little shine off the 2026 growth story as far and might give me a chance to buy lower.

AVGO

In general, a green-to-red move suggests a bit of weakness ahead. That softness could spill over into the other semi names, even if AMD and NVDA don’t share AVGO’s specific issues. If semis drop, NVDA and AMD could see some short-term pressure. I like all three long-term — they’re really the top large AI picks-and-shovels plays — but if NVDA or AMD break Thursday’s lows, double bottoms are on the table, or lower lows. A break below Thursday and AMD likely tags the 100-day SMA, and a break below that key average opens up the possibility of a full gap fill. If NVDA breaks Thursday’s low it would probably drift toward the mid-$160s, maybe $155.00 if the market gifts me my perfect set up.

AMD

As I’ve said all week: big tech is sitting right on key support. If those levels hold, up-up-and-away we go like Santa’s Slight into the December night sky. If not and SPY breaks the $681 support, expect some chop and selling into Christmas before the actual Santa Rally — the last five days of December and first two of January — steps in and gives 2026 a bullish welcome.

Plenty of names have strong bullish setups, and if NVDA, MSFT, AMD, AMZN and others can break out of this two-week range, it will be the bulls carrying Santa’s sleigh this year. Big picture as long as we stay above the 100-day SMA on SPY, this is a buy the dip market.

Outside my usual AI names and Bitcoin watchlist, I’m keeping an eye on NFLX. Back in the FAANG glory days, NFLX was one of the cool kids. Now it’s basically the old has been on the porch with a bourbon, remembering the good ol’ days before AI came and wrecked it’s fun. The stock’s down about 30% in six months — its first real pullback since the 2022 lows. After its 10-for-1 split, it’s been selling off nonstop, which isn’t unusual. Stocks often run into the split, then cool off and reset.

NFLX is now sitting right at its first major support — the $93 horizontal level and the anchored VWAP from April 2024. A lot of traders are eyeballing the 100-week SMA and the anchored VWAP from the January 2024 breakaway gap around $89. That’d be about a 33% pullback and a solid risk/reward spot. Could it overshoot into the $82 liquidity pocket? Sure. Could it bounce right here? Absolutely. RSI is the lowest of the entire bull run, and every time it’s hit this level since 2022, a major low followed. NFLX has given only one divergent low since then — April 2025.

My plan: watch Thursday’s low. Lose that and the 100-week SMA likely gets touched. Gap up from here and we may already have a short-term low worth playing with an aggressive stop. And now that NFLX is $94 instead of $1,000, it’s far more fun and accessible to trade — especially with options. I may not be a Netflix subscriber, but I wouldn’t complain about making a few grand on the stock… just in case I feel like subscribing to watch Alex Honnold climb a skyscraper.

NFLX

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