Real Life Trading Blog
Yates CraigLast week’s SPY candle was a bearish engulfing pattern that wiped out the prior three weeks of gains. This week, so far, is shaping up as an inside high-wave candle—showing that pressure is building. If we do break down from here, I’ll be watching the 100-day SMA, 20-week EMA, and anchored VWAP from the May 12th breakout gap as critical support levels.
Yates CraigThis month isn’t about punishment or proving anything to anyone else—it’s about growth. It’s about refusing to drift through life on autopilot, about reclaiming my attention, my body, and my soul from the comfort that lulls me into complacency. I want to feel alive, challenged, and fully present in every moment I’m given.
Yates CraigWe saw Bitcoin and the broader crypto market break down on Thursday, sparking panic and renewed fears that the top is in. That’s certainly possible, and I’ve been warning about the bull trap since August 14th. In past cycles, every bull trap led to a significant drawdown—22% at the shallow end, 77% at the steepest. A 22% pullback would take BTC to around $97,000, which also lines up with the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart. That’s the moving average I use to separate bull and bear cycles, and it’s been reliable this run.
Yates CraigSeptember has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin and this one is setting up no differently. The current double top is playing out with a clean neckline retest on September 3rd. The double top measured move targets the $95k–$100k range. This is where multiple supports converge: the 50-week EMA, the 100-SMA on the 3D chart, the YTD anchored VWAP, and the cycle trendline that has held this entire bull market.
Yates CraigIf we break above Wednesday’s hammer on SPY, we likely push toward $650. If we break below, $620 comes into play. NVDA earnings next Wednesday after the close will complicate things further—how the stock trades will almost certainly sway the market’s next big move. Time will tell, but September could finally deliver the pullback everyone has been waiting for.
Yates CraigOn Thursday, BTC gave us a bull trap. It’s done so four other times in this cycle and twice—very notably—in the last cycle. Both the April and November 2021 tops had this exact pattern: an all-time-high trap followed by major drawdowns. Each time we’ve seen this bull trap, the market has dropped, broken its prior higher low, and seen the RSI dip to oversold (27 on the daily chart)
Real Life Trading Blog
Yates CraigLast week’s SPY candle was a bearish engulfing pattern that wiped out the prior three weeks of gains. This week, so far, is shaping up as an inside high-wave candle—showing that pressure is building. If we do break down from here, I’ll be watching the 100-day SMA, 20-week EMA, and anchored VWAP from the May 12th breakout gap as critical support levels.
Yates CraigThis month isn’t about punishment or proving anything to anyone else—it’s about growth. It’s about refusing to drift through life on autopilot, about reclaiming my attention, my body, and my soul from the comfort that lulls me into complacency. I want to feel alive, challenged, and fully present in every moment I’m given.
Yates CraigWe saw Bitcoin and the broader crypto market break down on Thursday, sparking panic and renewed fears that the top is in. That’s certainly possible, and I’ve been warning about the bull trap since August 14th. In past cycles, every bull trap led to a significant drawdown—22% at the shallow end, 77% at the steepest. A 22% pullback would take BTC to around $97,000, which also lines up with the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart. That’s the moving average I use to separate bull and bear cycles, and it’s been reliable this run.
Yates CraigSeptember has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin and this one is setting up no differently. The current double top is playing out with a clean neckline retest on September 3rd. The double top measured move targets the $95k–$100k range. This is where multiple supports converge: the 50-week EMA, the 100-SMA on the 3D chart, the YTD anchored VWAP, and the cycle trendline that has held this entire bull market.
Yates CraigIf we break above Wednesday’s hammer on SPY, we likely push toward $650. If we break below, $620 comes into play. NVDA earnings next Wednesday after the close will complicate things further—how the stock trades will almost certainly sway the market’s next big move. Time will tell, but September could finally deliver the pullback everyone has been waiting for.
Yates CraigOn Thursday, BTC gave us a bull trap. It’s done so four other times in this cycle and twice—very notably—in the last cycle. Both the April and November 2021 tops had this exact pattern: an all-time-high trap followed by major drawdowns. Each time we’ve seen this bull trap, the market has dropped, broken its prior higher low, and seen the RSI dip to oversold (27 on the daily chart)
* All investments carry a certain level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Please consider your objectives and risk tolerance before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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