Market Milestones: Bye Bitcoin or Buy Bitcoin

It's been a while since we took an in-depth look at Bitcoin’s chart, and I think it’s time. We’re likely approaching one of the last solid risk-reward opportunities for longs in this cycle. A pullback to 100-day SMA, currently around $93,000, still offers a solid entry with roughly 30% upside to my lower target of $124,000. That level is a high-probability target for this cycle and provides the kind of setup I look for in position trades. It’s of course possible the DeepSeek low was the last dip we are going to get, and we blast off on a mission to the moon.

As far as targets go, I don’t think $124,000 will be the ultimate peak, it’s just a high probability target for this cycle. Bitcoin has yet to enter the euphoric phase of the cycle, and historically, its final fifth wave moves tend to extend—creating parabolic, blow-off tops that can be extremely rewarding for bulls. When that phase kicks in, we’ll start hearing even more wild seven-figure price targets, and the hype will be overwhelming, making it psychologically difficult to sell. That’s why it's crucial for traders to set targets now—at least for partial profit-taking.

Trading Around a Core Position

For me, selling Bitcoin is always a challenge because it remains one of the best-performing assets of all time. But trading around a core long-term position allows even the most bullish traders to take profits without fully exiting the market. The core position is held for the long term in case the most bullish scenario plays out, while profits on the rest of the position can be used to diversify into other assets, improve lifestyle, or—more often than not in my case—buy even more Bitcoin when the inevitable dip happens.

As traders and investors, we have to accept that we will never time the exact top. Some upside will always be left on the table. But securing profits at strategic levels ensures that if Bitcoin pulls back significantly or enters a prolonged bear market, you have capital ready to buy back at lower prices, ultimately increasing your Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin’s Post-Cycle Pullbacks & Future Targets

Bitcoin has a well-documented history of deep post-cycle pullbacks, often 70% or more. If history repeats, a cycle top in the $140,000–$175,000 range would imply a future low somewhere between $40,000–$60,000. A top above $140,000 would align well with the parallel channel Bitcoin has tracked since 2018, while a move to $200,000 would suggest a potential bottom closer to $60,000 during the next crypto winter.

While it’s possible that Bitcoin’s ETF-driven demand dampens some of the usual volatility—both to the upside and downside—I’m not ruling out another major correction in Bitcoin’s future. That’s why having an exit and re-entry plan matters.

BTCUSD Parallel Channel

Profit-Taking Strategies

There are two primary ways to take profits in Bitcoin, and both can be used together:

1. Setting limit sells at predetermined targets – Selling into strength is challenging because when Bitcoin is surging, it feels unstoppable. This can lead to FOMO as Bitcoin continues to climb past your sell target. However, unless you're a die-hard HODLer intending to pass your Bitcoin down through generations, taking profits along the way is a disciplined and wise strategy. Some Bitcoin maximalists might argue that you're exchanging "valuable" BTC for "worthless" fiat currency. Yet, if those worthless dollars enable you to accumulate even more BTC later, it’s a win-win.

2. Using trailing stops to lock in gains – Instead of selling into strength, this approach lets you sell on weakness, protecting profits in the case of larger downturns, while allowing Bitcoin to run higher if momentum continues. A simple way to implement this is by setting a trailing stop below a key moving average—such as the weekly or monthly 50-EMA. If Bitcoin extends into full-blown euphoria, this method helps to capture more upside and locks in gains once the uptrend weakens.

These two strategies can work in unison. Limit sells can lock in profits near expected resistance zones, while trailing stops help catch extended moves without selling too early.

Bitcoin in 2025

How high Bitcoin climbs this cycle will help determine where the next bear market bottom forms. If we see a blow-off top, the subsequent pullback could be steeper. If ETFs smooth out the market, we may not see the usual 70–80% crypto winter crashes. Either way, my approach for bitcoin for the year 2025 is as follows:

• Buy dips into the mid to low $90,000s and potentially the $80,000s.

• Lock in profits at predetermined targets in the $140,000–$175,000 range.

•       Hold a solid core position in bitcoin in case the mega bulls are right and we never dip again.

• Stay patient and stay ready for anything.

Like many, I’ve been scaling into Bitcoin for the last several years, but we are now approaching the time to scale out as buy zones diminish. The key to success now is discipline—whether your plan is to HODL through whatever this market brings or to take profits at key levels, the most important thing is sticking to that plan. Avoiding emotional decisions and staying committed to a well-thought-out strategy is what separates successful traders and investors from those who get caught chasing hype or panic-selling at the worst times.

This cycle still has room to run, but the window for strong risk-reward buys is closing, or perhaps closed. Now, it’s about execution—being patient, taking profits when targets hit, and planning for the next move, whatever that may be.

BTCUSD Fifth Wave