Real Life Trading Blog
Yates CraigAfter the three-day bullish laser beam we saw when the SPY hit the 100-day SMA, momentum has slowed. We’ve gone slightly higher or sideways each day over the last week. QQQ hasn’t yet filled its overhead gap at 629.85, but it’s trying—and if it gets there without any pullback first, that gap becomes a great target for profit taking for any longs entered off of the 100-day SMA.
Yates CraigLiquidity is drying up across markets after seven months of exuberance and straight-up bull moves. High-beta names and AI darlings have started cascading lower as rising concerns over debt loads and debt servicing push investors into risk-off positioning. Crypto—one of the most liquidity-sensitive asset classes on earth—has been getting obliterated since the October 4th peak, with capital flight accelerating as U.S. Dollar liquidity tightens and markets reprice rapidly.
Yates CraigOne of the more concerning signals comes from the 3-day chart, which shows SPY trading within a massive parallel channel since 2020. Recently, we gapped above the channel, then gapped back inside, leaving behind what resembles an island reversal near the highs after one of the strongest runs in history. That alone is enough to warrant caution. We’ve also seen bearish RSI divergence since September—a sign that momentum is waning, even if a top isn’t imminent.
Yates CraigI made a 25-minute video on Thursday, October 30, 2025 titled “Have I Become a Bitcoin Bear?” (linked below if you want to check it out). The reason I made this video was to walk through all of the technical signals I’m seeing right now that suggest the top of this Bitcoin cycle could be in. I’m not saying the top is in—but if a few of these historically reliable indicators play out, I’ll be leaning that direction.
Yates CraigThe Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 28—just three points away from “Extreme Fear”—while the market itself is less than half a percent away from new all-time highs. That’s wild. Typically, this indicator is most useful at the extremes: buying into the most Extreme Fear and selling into the most Extreme Greed. It hit a reading of 3 on April 8th, just one day before the exact bottom of this market! Anything between those extremes is mostly noise, but this setup is worth noting.
Yates CraigLast week’s SPY candle was a bearish engulfing pattern that wiped out the prior three weeks of gains. This week, so far, is shaping up as an inside high-wave candle—showing that pressure is building. If we do break down from here, I’ll be watching the 100-day SMA, 20-week EMA, and anchored VWAP from the May 12th breakout gap as critical support levels.
Real Life Trading Blog
Yates CraigAfter the three-day bullish laser beam we saw when the SPY hit the 100-day SMA, momentum has slowed. We’ve gone slightly higher or sideways each day over the last week. QQQ hasn’t yet filled its overhead gap at 629.85, but it’s trying—and if it gets there without any pullback first, that gap becomes a great target for profit taking for any longs entered off of the 100-day SMA.
Yates CraigLiquidity is drying up across markets after seven months of exuberance and straight-up bull moves. High-beta names and AI darlings have started cascading lower as rising concerns over debt loads and debt servicing push investors into risk-off positioning. Crypto—one of the most liquidity-sensitive asset classes on earth—has been getting obliterated since the October 4th peak, with capital flight accelerating as U.S. Dollar liquidity tightens and markets reprice rapidly.
Yates CraigOne of the more concerning signals comes from the 3-day chart, which shows SPY trading within a massive parallel channel since 2020. Recently, we gapped above the channel, then gapped back inside, leaving behind what resembles an island reversal near the highs after one of the strongest runs in history. That alone is enough to warrant caution. We’ve also seen bearish RSI divergence since September—a sign that momentum is waning, even if a top isn’t imminent.
Yates CraigI made a 25-minute video on Thursday, October 30, 2025 titled “Have I Become a Bitcoin Bear?” (linked below if you want to check it out). The reason I made this video was to walk through all of the technical signals I’m seeing right now that suggest the top of this Bitcoin cycle could be in. I’m not saying the top is in—but if a few of these historically reliable indicators play out, I’ll be leaning that direction.
Yates CraigThe Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 28—just three points away from “Extreme Fear”—while the market itself is less than half a percent away from new all-time highs. That’s wild. Typically, this indicator is most useful at the extremes: buying into the most Extreme Fear and selling into the most Extreme Greed. It hit a reading of 3 on April 8th, just one day before the exact bottom of this market! Anything between those extremes is mostly noise, but this setup is worth noting.
Yates CraigLast week’s SPY candle was a bearish engulfing pattern that wiped out the prior three weeks of gains. This week, so far, is shaping up as an inside high-wave candle—showing that pressure is building. If we do break down from here, I’ll be watching the 100-day SMA, 20-week EMA, and anchored VWAP from the May 12th breakout gap as critical support levels.
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