Satoshi Nakamoto became the 12th richest person on Earth on Thursday, and I hope many of you became much wealthier as fellow Bitcoin holders. I’ve been covering BTC publicly for years, and every new all-time high is always fun to celebrate.

Bitcoin has officially broken out—and most signs right now suggest this is a real breakout, not a bull trap like we’ve seen many times before. BTC does love to trap traders at new highs before pulling back, and there were a couple of warning signs this time too: RSI divergence from the May high and declining volume. But Thursday’s continuation makes it more likely that this breakout is legit, and that we’re heading toward our long-held targets: $123,456.78, $139,876.54, $155,555.55.

BTCUSD Daily Chart

When it is a trap, BTC usually shows its hand quickly. So, if we start dropping and close below Thursday’s candle anytime in the next week or two, I’ll start leaning toward the false breakout scenario—and I’ll be eyeing a dip buy around the $95,000 zone. Because when BTC breaks out for real, it tends to run hard—and the max pain trade becomes anything not ultra long.

That said, if I wanted to get some exposure now for a quick trade, there’s a decent momentum setup with stops below Thursday’s candle—or more conservatively, below the pivot at $107,500. Ideally, BTC should hold $112,000 if this bullish move breakout is going to start gaining momentum and running to our targets.

Here is what I am watching in addition to price action and candle stick analysis:

Elliott Wave Count & Fibonacci Levels
Based on the wave structure, it looks like we’re in the 5th wave of the larger bull run. These 5th waves can extend—a lot—so timing the top is tough. Definitely tougher than calling bottoms with Bitcoin. But with BTC now up 654% off the 2022 lows, we’re much closer to the peak than the bottom.

When we look at some of the Fibonacci levels, we can see major zones around $122,000, $140,000, and $155,000. Those just happen to be my Target 1, 2, and 3. What a coincidence.

At some point, Bitcoin will have a serious pullback—at least 40%, and historically more like 70–80%. Though maybe those kinds of massive drops are behind us now. Either way, as we push into these target levels, I’ll be taking some profits while still maintaining a core position—just in case this bull run extends further than I anticipate.

BTCUSD Weekly Chart

Global M2 (Money Supply)
Bitcoin has long been correlated with global M2—the broad measure of money in circulation from the US, Eurozone, Japan, UK, and Canada. There’s typically a 3–6 month lag, but BTC tends to catch up.

In July, M2 hit a new all-time high: over $55 trillion. More liquidity in the system means more capital chasing scarce, hard assets—and there’s no asset harder than Bitcoin.

This stat and it’s historical correlation suggest BTC will continue its "up and to the right" trajectory as long as nations keep printing money. And let’s be honest—there’s no stopping that train. Long term, BTC heads higher, and based on the new M2 high, there’s likely still more gas left in the tank this cycle.

DXY (US Dollar Index)
Bitcoin and the DXY have maintained a strong inverse relationship—when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin tends to soar. When the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin usually pulls

• BTC topped in late 2017 as DXY bottomed

• BTC bottomed in 2020 as DXY peaked

• BTC topped again in April 2021 as DXY started its next move higher

• BTC bottomed in November 2022, right after DXY peaked again

Since the 2022 high, DXY has been trending lower in a large corrective structure, while BTC has rallied over 650% in a very complete 5-wave pattern.

Based on this historical correlation, it’s not crazy to think we could see a meaningful top in BTC over the next several months. As long as DXY keeps dropping, we should be in the clear. But if DXY starts carving out a real bottom just as topping signals appear in BTC, that would be a major red flag. Something to keep on your radar—especially if you’re not planning to HODL through the next bear market.

DXY VS BTC

SPY and Equities
Equities have been on a relentless grind higher, with barely a dip in sight. Unlike BTC, which consolidated and flagged for a month before its recent breakout, SPY hasn’t cooled off. I think we’re due for a 5–8% pullback in equities. That doesn’t have to drag BTC down with it—the correlation between the two is looser than many think.

However, with ETF inflows (IBIT and others) now a major factor, a spike in fear in the broader market could put pressure on BTC, or at least slow it down.

SPY

In Summary:
Every major signal I’m watching still points to more upside for BTC. But I think we’re closer to a potential top than most people realize. If DXY continues to slide, we could see more runway—maybe even a blow-off top into year-end, just like Bitcoin has done before.

Either way, this has been an incredible run. I’m expecting we wrap this cycle somewhere between $125,000 and $175,000—a massive win for everyone who’s been along for the ride.

We’ve waited years for six-figure Bitcoin. Now that we’re here, it’s time to set our sights on the next milestone: 7-figure BTC.

Until then, let’s keep doing what works—trading smart, accumulating strategically, taking profits at peaks and stacking more sats at lows. That’s how we build our portfolios for the next monster cycle.