The markets started the week with a whimper as everything gapped down on Monday—but they’re doing their best to go out with a bang. QQQ has now closed above the April 9th candle after a strong move higher. I've been saying to buy this dip since Liberation Day, and now I’m about to start saying: it’s time to sell the rip.

QQQ is running into major resistance right now and is now up 10% since Monday’s low. We've filled the "liberation gap" on QQQ and are just 1.5% away from doing the same on SPY. If/when SPY hits that level in the next few days, it’s going to be a great time to lock in gains once again.

QQQ

Since April 8th, I’ve said that DCAing into this market on red days would be one of the best ways to play it. I even said buying every day for the next two weeks (which took us to this Tuesday) would likely work well. Now that we’re approaching key levels, it’s time to shift gears—lock in profits and patiently wait for the next dip. It’s my opinion that the gap from Wednesday will fill in May, so there is no need for FOMO up here.

My upside targets for locking in gains:

• SPY: $555 to $575

• QQQ: $475 to $490

Once we hit those levels, the odds of a larger retest increase significantly. Whether that retest makes new lows, holds the 100-week SMA, or forms a double bottom remains to be seen.

SPY

It looks to me like many names may need to make one more low before completing their broader patterns. SMH, the semiconductor ETF (a key name we follow), looks like it could drop to retest its previous all-time high, completing a final C wave lower. If that happens, it would mark the end of a nearly year-long correction—and likely catch a lot of traders off guard.

There’s also a growing sense of complacency in the market. The Fear & Greed Index is no longer in "extreme fear," FOMO is back, and traders are YOLOing into setups after massive bullish runs. It’s starting to feel like a trap is around the corner.

SMH

We're deep in earnings season, and results have been interesting to say the least. TSLA reported awful earnings and still gapped up, riding a wave of bullish sentiment. That kind of reaction makes me feel like the bottom is in. If no one is selling that report, maybe there are no sellers left.

GOOGL, on the other hand, smashed expectations, announced a $70 billion buyback, and raised its dividend. And it only got a 5% gap up. That’s a weak reaction in a market where the SPY can move 5% on good news, which makes me think the major low is not yet in.

Needless to say, risk is still elevated. We’re always one headline or tweet away from a 5% move—up or down. That’s why I’ve stayed focused on three things during April:

• Risk Mitigation

• Selling premium

• Buying high-quality names I want to own, as low as I can, and then accumulating

Between tariffs and earnings, you’d think it couldn’t get any crazier—yet here we are. TLT still can’t catch a bid no matter what’s happening. It’s been in a downtrend since the double rate cut whammy back in September. Even during a technical bear market, TLT couldn’t find buyers. In fact, the bond market forced a pivot from the Trump administration on April 9th.

This is a major problem for the U.S., which needs lower interest rates to refinance nearly a third of its absurdly massive debt load this year. If you're still holding onto the old-school 60/40 portfolio, you've likely been punished in both of the last two bear markets—2022 and now. Bonds didn’t hedge anything. That’s exactly why I’ve shifted to what I call the millennial 60/40 split: 60% Bitcoin, 40% equities. It's a modern, conviction-based portfolio allocation for those who have been truly orange pilled.

TLT

Gold—and to a lesser extent, Bitcoin—performed impressively during the Liberation Crash. While Bitcoin is still down from its all-time highs, it held up remarkably well during the Liberation Day panic. It didn’t behave like a high-risk asset at all. Instead, it showed relative strength and performed exactly as it was designed to: as a crisis hedge.

As for gold, it may have already topped—or it’s very close. Even if we get one more push higher, the higher it goes, the more attractive the short setup becomes. I can see a potential sequence where markets continue to drift higher for another week or two while gold pulls back to around the $3,000 level. Then, as the broader market rolls over, gold could spike again into one final high before a deeper correction. That move would offer a strong short opportunity in gold, while the equity drawdown could present a high-conviction long setup.

Of course, all of this is dubious speculation. But hey, that’s what you’re here for, right?

GLD

TLDR – My Market Outlook

• We’re nearing the end of this B-wave bear market bounce.

• A larger retest is coming soon—either a double bottom or new low for most equities.

• That pullback should create a killer buying opportunity, especially for names that hold up well during earnings.

• Bitcoin is likely to make a higher low (above $81,000 and its pink trendline), then rip to $124,000 this summer.

• Gold will probably retrace to $3,000—or maybe even $2,888—before finding major support. Whether it makes one last push higher before that dip is still TBD.

Surely I have to nail one of these predictions... right? Right?!

BTCUSD