Real Life Trading Blog

Market Milestones: 60/40

Yates Craig

Published on: 25/04/2025

Between tariffs and earnings, you’d think it couldn’t get any crazier—yet here we are. TLT still can’t catch a bid no matter what’s happening. It’s been in a downtrend since the double rate cut whammy back in September. Even during a technical bear market, TLT couldn’t find buyers. In fact, the bond market forced a pivot from the Trump administration on April 9th. This is a major problem for the U.S., which needs lower interest rates to refinance nearly a third of its absurdly massive debt load this year. If you're still holding onto the old-school 60/40 portfolio, you've likely been punished in both of the last two bear markets—2022 and now. Bonds didn’t hedge anything. That’s exactly why I’ve shifted to what I call the millennial 60/40 split: 60% Bitcoin, 40% equities. It's a modern, conviction-based portfolio allocation for those who have been truly orange pilled.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Made In America

Yates Craig

Published on: 11/04/2025

This is an ideal time to be selling puts on companies you’d love to own at prices you’d be happy to pay. Over the last 36 trading days, I’ve posted six put sales that brought in $722.00 in premium—enough to pay for over a full year of the RLT Newsletter. On Thursday, I posted four more put sales, for another $458 in premium set to expire next week. If you’re not already part of our thriving RLT Newsletter community, now’s the ideal time to join.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Shaved Bottom

Yates Craig

Published on: 04/04/2025

All major markets broke down in a big way on Thursday. SPY dropped 4.93%, QQQ fell 5.35%, IWM slid 6.42%, and SMH led the plunge, closing down 8.65%. The Magnificent 7 took a beating as well—AAPL, AMZN, and META all dropped roughly 9%. There was blood in the streets as the market scrambled to price in the impact of Liberation Day and Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. While it’ll take time to truly understand the effect of these tariffs, the market's initial reaction made one thing clear: if they’re implemented as laid out in the Rose Garden, the outlook isn’t bullish. The odds of a recession are skyrocketing—and if nothing changes with the tariffs, 2025 is going to get a lot bumpier.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Decision Time

Yates Craig

Published on: 28/03/2025

Many stocks, especially the Magnificent 7, are sitting right at key support, waiting for a catalyst. April 2nd, dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Trump, could be just that.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: History Repeats

Yates Craig

Published on: 21/03/2025

When Ronald Reagan was elected, the stock market had just hit all-time highs after surging 63% over the previous 2.5 years. From the October 2022 lows to Trump’s election in November 2024, the market surged 67%—a remarkably similar move.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Correction

Yates Craig

Published on: 14/03/2025

In times of extreme uncertainty like this, cash is a valuable position, and risk management is critical. While the market just saw a similar correction in August 2024, this one feels more intense due to excessive retail exposure, deeper macro concerns, and a relentless sell-off with no relief. The Magnificent 7 have all entered bear markets, and while history suggests opportunities will arise, especially in these stocks, caution and aggressive risk management are essential right now. Long-term investors should focus on strong companies and dollar-cost averaging, using these corrections as opportunities to add to their positions. Traders must prioritize risk mitigation with stops, hedging, smaller positions, and selective stock picking. The key now is to watch for clear bottoming signals before getting aggressive to the bull side, and even then, risk must be managed carefully now that key levels have been broken. Whether this plays out as a V-bottom or a prolonged downturn, staying nimble and protecting capital will be the difference between outsized gains when the market turns or simply hoping to get back to break-even.

Market Milestones

Real Life Trading Blog

Market Milestones: 60/40

Yates Craig

Published on: 25/04/2025

Between tariffs and earnings, you’d think it couldn’t get any crazier—yet here we are. TLT still can’t catch a bid no matter what’s happening. It’s been in a downtrend since the double rate cut whammy back in September. Even during a technical bear market, TLT couldn’t find buyers. In fact, the bond market forced a pivot from the Trump administration on April 9th. This is a major problem for the U.S., which needs lower interest rates to refinance nearly a third of its absurdly massive debt load this year. If you're still holding onto the old-school 60/40 portfolio, you've likely been punished in both of the last two bear markets—2022 and now. Bonds didn’t hedge anything. That’s exactly why I’ve shifted to what I call the millennial 60/40 split: 60% Bitcoin, 40% equities. It's a modern, conviction-based portfolio allocation for those who have been truly orange pilled.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Made In America

Yates Craig

Published on: 11/04/2025

This is an ideal time to be selling puts on companies you’d love to own at prices you’d be happy to pay. Over the last 36 trading days, I’ve posted six put sales that brought in $722.00 in premium—enough to pay for over a full year of the RLT Newsletter. On Thursday, I posted four more put sales, for another $458 in premium set to expire next week. If you’re not already part of our thriving RLT Newsletter community, now’s the ideal time to join.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Shaved Bottom

Yates Craig

Published on: 04/04/2025

All major markets broke down in a big way on Thursday. SPY dropped 4.93%, QQQ fell 5.35%, IWM slid 6.42%, and SMH led the plunge, closing down 8.65%. The Magnificent 7 took a beating as well—AAPL, AMZN, and META all dropped roughly 9%. There was blood in the streets as the market scrambled to price in the impact of Liberation Day and Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. While it’ll take time to truly understand the effect of these tariffs, the market's initial reaction made one thing clear: if they’re implemented as laid out in the Rose Garden, the outlook isn’t bullish. The odds of a recession are skyrocketing—and if nothing changes with the tariffs, 2025 is going to get a lot bumpier.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Decision Time

Yates Craig

Published on: 28/03/2025

Many stocks, especially the Magnificent 7, are sitting right at key support, waiting for a catalyst. April 2nd, dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Trump, could be just that.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: History Repeats

Yates Craig

Published on: 21/03/2025

When Ronald Reagan was elected, the stock market had just hit all-time highs after surging 63% over the previous 2.5 years. From the October 2022 lows to Trump’s election in November 2024, the market surged 67%—a remarkably similar move.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Correction

Yates Craig

Published on: 14/03/2025

In times of extreme uncertainty like this, cash is a valuable position, and risk management is critical. While the market just saw a similar correction in August 2024, this one feels more intense due to excessive retail exposure, deeper macro concerns, and a relentless sell-off with no relief. The Magnificent 7 have all entered bear markets, and while history suggests opportunities will arise, especially in these stocks, caution and aggressive risk management are essential right now. Long-term investors should focus on strong companies and dollar-cost averaging, using these corrections as opportunities to add to their positions. Traders must prioritize risk mitigation with stops, hedging, smaller positions, and selective stock picking. The key now is to watch for clear bottoming signals before getting aggressive to the bull side, and even then, risk must be managed carefully now that key levels have been broken. Whether this plays out as a V-bottom or a prolonged downturn, staying nimble and protecting capital will be the difference between outsized gains when the market turns or simply hoping to get back to break-even.

Market Milestones

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