Real Life Trading Blog

Market Milestones: Crossing the Channel

Yates Craig

Published on: 07/11/2025

One of the more concerning signals comes from the 3-day chart, which shows SPY trading within a massive parallel channel since 2020. Recently, we gapped above the channel, then gapped back inside, leaving behind what resembles an island reversal near the highs after one of the strongest runs in history. That alone is enough to warrant caution. We’ve also seen bearish RSI divergence since September—a sign that momentum is waning, even if a top isn’t imminent.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Have I Become A Bitcoin Bear?

Yates Craig

Published on: 31/10/2025

I made a 25-minute video on Thursday, October 30, 2025 titled “Have I Become a Bitcoin Bear?” (linked below if you want to check it out). The reason I made this video was to walk through all of the technical signals I’m seeing right now that suggest the top of this Bitcoin cycle could be in. I’m not saying the top is in—but if a few of these historically reliable indicators play out, I’ll be leaning that direction.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Extreme Fear Near All Time Highs

Yates Craig

Published on: 24/10/2025

The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 28—just three points away from “Extreme Fear”—while the market itself is less than half a percent away from new all-time highs. That’s wild. Typically, this indicator is most useful at the extremes: buying into the most Extreme Fear and selling into the most Extreme Greed. It hit a reading of 3 on April 8th, just one day before the exact bottom of this market! Anything between those extremes is mostly noise, but this setup is worth noting.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Uptober or Octobear

Yates Craig

Published on: 17/10/2025

Last week’s SPY candle was a bearish engulfing pattern that wiped out the prior three weeks of gains. This week, so far, is shaping up as an inside high-wave candle—showing that pressure is building. If we do break down from here, I’ll be watching the 100-day SMA, 20-week EMA, and anchored VWAP from the May 12th breakout gap as critical support levels.

Market Milestones

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from Complacency

Yates Craig

Published on: 03/10/2025

This month isn’t about punishment or proving anything to anyone else—it’s about growth. It’s about refusing to drift through life on autopilot, about reclaiming my attention, my body, and my soul from the comfort that lulls me into complacency. I want to feel alive, challenged, and fully present in every moment I’m given.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Breakdown

Yates Craig

Published on: 26/09/2025

We saw Bitcoin and the broader crypto market break down on Thursday, sparking panic and renewed fears that the top is in. That’s certainly possible, and I’ve been warning about the bull trap since August 14th. In past cycles, every bull trap led to a significant drawdown—22% at the shallow end, 77% at the steepest. A 22% pullback would take BTC to around $97,000, which also lines up with the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart. That’s the moving average I use to separate bull and bear cycles, and it’s been reliable this run.

Market Milestones

Real Life Trading Blog

Market Milestones: Crossing the Channel

Yates Craig

Published on: 07/11/2025

One of the more concerning signals comes from the 3-day chart, which shows SPY trading within a massive parallel channel since 2020. Recently, we gapped above the channel, then gapped back inside, leaving behind what resembles an island reversal near the highs after one of the strongest runs in history. That alone is enough to warrant caution. We’ve also seen bearish RSI divergence since September—a sign that momentum is waning, even if a top isn’t imminent.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Have I Become A Bitcoin Bear?

Yates Craig

Published on: 31/10/2025

I made a 25-minute video on Thursday, October 30, 2025 titled “Have I Become a Bitcoin Bear?” (linked below if you want to check it out). The reason I made this video was to walk through all of the technical signals I’m seeing right now that suggest the top of this Bitcoin cycle could be in. I’m not saying the top is in—but if a few of these historically reliable indicators play out, I’ll be leaning that direction.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Extreme Fear Near All Time Highs

Yates Craig

Published on: 24/10/2025

The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 28—just three points away from “Extreme Fear”—while the market itself is less than half a percent away from new all-time highs. That’s wild. Typically, this indicator is most useful at the extremes: buying into the most Extreme Fear and selling into the most Extreme Greed. It hit a reading of 3 on April 8th, just one day before the exact bottom of this market! Anything between those extremes is mostly noise, but this setup is worth noting.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Uptober or Octobear

Yates Craig

Published on: 17/10/2025

Last week’s SPY candle was a bearish engulfing pattern that wiped out the prior three weeks of gains. This week, so far, is shaping up as an inside high-wave candle—showing that pressure is building. If we do break down from here, I’ll be watching the 100-day SMA, 20-week EMA, and anchored VWAP from the May 12th breakout gap as critical support levels.

Market Milestones

A Month of Discomfort: Breaking Free from Complacency

Yates Craig

Published on: 03/10/2025

This month isn’t about punishment or proving anything to anyone else—it’s about growth. It’s about refusing to drift through life on autopilot, about reclaiming my attention, my body, and my soul from the comfort that lulls me into complacency. I want to feel alive, challenged, and fully present in every moment I’m given.

Market Milestones

Market Milestones: Bitcoin Breakdown

Yates Craig

Published on: 26/09/2025

We saw Bitcoin and the broader crypto market break down on Thursday, sparking panic and renewed fears that the top is in. That’s certainly possible, and I’ve been warning about the bull trap since August 14th. In past cycles, every bull trap led to a significant drawdown—22% at the shallow end, 77% at the steepest. A 22% pullback would take BTC to around $97,000, which also lines up with the 120-SMA on the 3-day chart. That’s the moving average I use to separate bull and bear cycles, and it’s been reliable this run.

Market Milestones

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